【第七十七期】数据误导认知 | Monica老师的听写频道

本篇文章是与数据有关的,属于科普知识。慢速英语,语速正常。可以作为口译入门或基础英语听力口语听写的素材。大家快来挑战自己吧!

 

听写好了咩?

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Statistics are persuasive.
统计数据说服力的确很高。

So much so that people, organizations, and whole countries base some of their most important decisions on organized data.
以至于人们、组织机构甚至整个国家在做重要决定时,都会以统计数据为参考。

But there’s a problem with that.
但实际上这么做是有问题的。

Any set of statistics might have something lurking inside it, something that can turn the results completely upside down.
任何一组统计数据都含有一些隐藏因素,这些因素可能会颠覆整个结果。

For example, imagine you need to choose between two hospitals for an elderly relative’s surgery.
例如,假设你需要在两家医院中选择一家为家里的老人做手术。

Out of each hospital’s last 1000 patients, 900 survived at Hospital A, while only 800 survived at Hospital B.
每家医院近期收治的1000名患者,A医院有900人存活,而B医院只有800人存活。

So it looks like Hospital A is the better choice.
如此看来,选择A医院更好一些。

But before you make your decision, remember that not all patients arrive at the hospital with the same level of health.
但在你做决定之前,请记住,这些病人入院时的健康状况并不一样。

And if we divide each hospital’s last 1000 patients into those who arrived in good health and those who arrived in poor health, the picture starts to look very different.
如果我们将1000名患者分为两组,也就是将健康状况好的分为一组,健康状况差的分为另一组,结果就会截然不同。

Hospital A had only 100 patients who arrived in poor health, of which 30 survived.
入院时,A医院只有100名病人健康状况不佳,其中有30名病患存活。

But Hospital B had 400, and they were able to save 210.
但B医院入院时有400名病人健康状况不佳,其中有210名病患存活。

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